VST · Q2 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Vistra Corp.

Reported August 7, 2026

30-second summary

Vistra reported Q2 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA of $1,767M (+31% YoY), net income of $305M, reaffirmed the FY2026 EBITDA range of $6.8–7.6B and FCFbG range of $3.925–4.725B, and reaffirmed the 2027 EBITDA midpoint opportunity of $7.4–7.8B. Reported revenue of $4.017B (−5.5% YoY) fell below street expectations, but the disconnect is the same IPP mark-to-market noise that produced Q3 2025's −21% revenue print alongside record segment EBITDA — Texas Adj. EBITDA doubled (+119% YoY) and East jumped +53.6%, corroborating the "curves underpriced" thesis empirically. Consensus is priced to a top-line and GAAP framework that management explicitly does not guide to; the operational print supports the FY ladder.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q2 FY2026

$0.91

Revenue

Q2 FY2026

$4.02B

-5.5% YoY

-26.7% vs est.

Operating margin

Q2 FY2026

13.8%

Key financials

Q2 FY2026

Metric	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY	Q1 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$4.02B	$4.25B	-5.5%	$5.64B	-28.8%
EPS	$0.91	—	—	$2.91	-68.7%
Operating margin	13.8%	12.1%	+170bps	26.6%	-1280bps

Guidance

Management reaffirmed FY2026 full-year EBITDA and FCF guidance despite Q2 revenue and EPS misses, signaling conviction in operational recovery and hedging protection for the second half.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q2 FY2026	—	$4.017 billion	-26.7% vs consensus estimate of $5.48B	Missed
EPS (GAAP)	Q2 FY2026	—	$0.91	-48% vs consensus estimate of $1.75	Missed

Reaffirmed unchanged this quarter: Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA ($6.8 billion to $7.6 billion), Ongoing Operations Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth ($3.925 billion to $4.725 billion), 2027 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA Midpoint Opportunity ($7.4 billion to $7.8 billion)

Other KPIs

Q2 FY2026

Segment	Q2 FY2026	Q2 FY2025	YoY
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA	$1,767 million	—	—
Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA YoY Growth	+30.8%	—	—
Commercial Fleet Availability	97% or greater	—	—
2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA Guidance	$6,800M - $7,600M	—	—
2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted FCFbG Guidance	$3,925M - $4,725M	—	—
2026 Hedging Position - Generation Volumes	100% hedged	—	—
2027 Hedging Position - Generation Volumes	94% hedged	—	—
2028 Hedging Position - Generation Volumes	72% hedged	—	—

Management tone

Tone analysis is unavailable this quarter — no earnings call transcript was released alongside the press release. Multi-quarter tone tracking will resume when a transcript is available.

The press release itself carries one substantive framing shift worth noting: the qualitative guidance statements explicitly foreground that the "comprehensive hedging program provides support for the reaffirmed 2026 guidance ranges." Across Q3 2025 through Q1 2026, the message anchor was contracted nuclear capacity and forward demand growth. This quarter, with GAAP revenue optics weak, the anchor pivots to hedges as the defense of the FY range. It reads as pre-empting the exact question the revenue miss would provoke — and the 100%/94%/72% hedge coverage across 2026/27/28 is the evidence to back it.

The second framing note: Cogentrix and the Meta PPAs are still explicitly carved out of guidance ("ranges exclude any potential benefits from the pending acquisition of Cogentrix and the signed power purchase agreements with Meta"). Four quarters of the same carve-out means the eventual guide-update event, when Cogentrix closes, remains the single largest disclosure catalyst. FERC approval of the Cogentrix acquisition disclosed this quarter removes one gating item.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Cogentrix close timing and the guidance update mechanic — Partial progress. FERC approval received this quarter, removing a gating item; no updated close date disclosed. Guidance carve-out language repeats verbatim. The Q3 print remains the more likely refresh window. Status: Continue monitoring

First Q2 print since the "model absorbs weather" claim was made empirically — Resolved positively. Texas Adj. EBITDA +119% YoY, East +53.6%, and consolidated EBITDA +31% YoY against a quarter where Q2 2025 already benefited from cooling load. This is the load-growth-outpacing-curves thesis printing at scale. Status: Resolved positively

2027 hedge coverage cadence — Resolved positively. 2027 stepped from 89% to 94% (+5pts one quarter), 2028 from 65% to 72% (+7pts). The pace argues management is treating current forward curves as attractive enough to lock, consistent with the "we will hedge when we like prices" framing. Status: Resolved positively

Any nuclear or gas contracting disclosure — Partially resolved. No new PPAs, but Vistra announced Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR, KIA, and NVIDIA and an up-to-$1.0B commitment, with Vistra as Helix's preferred power provider — a structurally different data-center demand vector than a bilateral PPA. The Meta PPAs remain the standing incremental. Worth pressing on the Q3 call for whether Helix converts into contracted volumes. Status: Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Cogentrix close and guidance refresh — With FERC now approved, Q3 is the more likely print where management updates the guide. Watch for an update to the FY2026 EBITDA range narrowing above $7.2B midpoint, and any explicit Cogentrix contribution disclosure.

Helix conversion into contracted MW — the Vistra-as-preferred-power-provider language is soft; whether it hardens into disclosed PPAs will determine if Helix is a genuine demand offtake or a financial-partnership headline.

Q3 EBITDA against the ~$1.55B implied requirement — with 1H at $3,261M and FY midpoint at $7.2B, Q3+Q4 needs to deliver ~$3.94B. Q3 is seasonally the strongest generation quarter; anything below $1.6B pushes 2H skew heavily onto Q4.

2028 hedge cadence — 72% locked three years out is aggressive. Whether the 2028 book continues to build at 7-point-per-quarter pace or slows will signal whether management's forward-curve view has been fully expressed or has further runway.

Investment-grade rating action — flagged by management on Q4 as "potentially as early as later this year." Neither Q1 nor Q2 saw the second upgrade. The window is narrowing.

Sources

Vistra Corp. Q2 2026 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000017/vistra-20260630xearningsre.htm
Vistra Corp. Q1 2026 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000169281926000011/vistra-20260331xearningsre.htm
Vistra Corp. Q4 2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000119312526073364/d21122dex991.htm
Vistra Corp. Q3 2025 press release (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1), SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1692819/000119312525268033/d33941dex991.htm

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