HOOD · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Robinhood Markets

Reported October 31, 2025

30-second summary

Robinhood put up an unambiguously bullish Q3: revenue nearly $1.3B (+100% YoY), EPS more than tripled, record net deposits of over $20B, Gold subscribers at a record 3.9M (+75% YoY), and platform assets above $333B. Prediction markets hit $100M annualized in under a year and are tracking to a $300M run rate on October volumes; Bitstamp grew 60%+ QoQ and crossed $100M annualized; 11 product lines now exceed $100M annualized revenue. The one clear negative: FY2025 adjusted OpEx+SBC is now guided to "around $2.28B" — above the prior $2.15–$2.25B ceiling — as management leans into prediction markets and Robinhood Ventures, and absorbs the cost of Vlad's market-based award. October was described as "even better" with new single-day and monthly records across equities, options, prediction markets, and margin.

Guidance

FY2025 OPEX+SBC guidance raised above prior range; strong October momentum and record trading volumes across equities, options, and prediction markets signal accelerating growth trajectory.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted OPEX plus SBC	FY2025	$2.15 billion to $2.25 billion	around 2.28 billion	+$0.03B to +$0.13B above prior guide range	Raised

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
S&P 500 Stocks Non-Directed Orders (% of All Orders)	100.00%
S&P 500 Stocks Market Orders (% of Non-Directed Orders)	41.30%
Non-S&P 500 Stocks Non-Directed Orders (% of All Orders)	100.00%
Non-S&P 500 Stocks Market Orders (% of Non-Directed Orders)	37.66%
Options Non-Directed Orders (% of All Orders)	100.00%
Options Market Orders (% of Non-Directed Orders)	1.07%
Virtu Americas S&P 500 Stocks Market Share	52.90%
CITADEL SECURITIES Options Market Share	38.92%

Management tone

Q1 product roadmap framing → Q2 wallet-share inflection → Q3 platform diversification proof → forward: super-app execution

Prediction markets went from "experimental" to "fastest-scaling business in company history" in two quarters. Last quarter prediction markets barely featured in the narrative; this quarter management led with it. "Prediction markets reach that milestone in less than a year. It's our fastest in history. And it's already tracking towards a $300 million run rate based on October volumes." That's a structural growth vector that doesn't depend on equities volatility or crypto cycles.

Bitstamp's framing shifted from integration risk to strategic infrastructure. In Q2, Bitstamp was a $65M OpEx headwind from a pending close. This quarter: "Volumes are up 60 plus percent quarter over quarter for Bitstamp. And it's great to see that we're accelerating even as we're integrating." Management is now positioning Bitstamp as the rails for tokenization phase two (secondary trading of real assets) and as Robinhood's "first scaled institutional business" — a different category of revenue than retail PFOF and one that diversifies the regulatory exposure profile.

Diversification narrative replaced the wallet-share narrative as the dominant story. Q2's headline was assets-per-customer crossing $10K. Q3's headline is "two more businesses, Prediction Markets and Bitstamp, each surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue, bringing us to 11 in total." The pivot matters: 11 nine-figure businesses materially undermines the long-standing bear case that Robinhood is a single-product crypto-and-options retail broker.

Investment posture turned offensive. A quarter ago the OpEx raise was framed defensively (Bitstamp absorption). This quarter management openly said the raise funds "some increased investment in new growth areas like prediction markets and Robinhood Ventures. I think each of these areas have significant potential for us." This is the first quarter the FY guide moved up for explicitly offensive reasons.

Competitive positioning sharpened. "We want active traders to feel like they are at a disadvantage if they trade anywhere other than Robinhood." That sentence would have been off-tone for Robinhood 18 months ago. The company is now explicitly claiming product superiority for the most demanding segment of the market.

Recurring themes management leaned on this quarter:

Record revenue growth (100%+ YoY) and profitability with margin expansionPrediction markets as fastest-growing new business (sub-1-year to $100M annualized run rate)Product velocity and innovation across active traders, wallet share, and global ecosystemBanking and financial super app acceleration (Gold Card 5x growth, Banking rollout)Institutional/international revenue diversification (Bitstamp 60%+ growth)11 businesses now exceeding $100M annualized revenue milestone

Risks management surfaced:

Regulatory developments continue to be monitored (forward-looking caveat)CEO market-based award vesting triggered unplanned payroll tax expense (though characterized as one-time)Business results tracking to top end of guidance (implies execution risk to maintain momentum)Employee bonus accruals elevated due to strong performance (cost inflation pressure)

Q&A highlights

Patrick Moley · Piper Sandler

Strategy in prediction markets given new entrants, and whether Robinhood should develop market-making or exchange capabilities internally versus maintaining retail distribution focus.

Vlad emphasized Robinhood's distribution advantage (26M+ funded accounts) and multi-asset infrastructure. On vertical integration, stated the company evaluates whether integration is accretive and noted prediction markets will likely evolve with multiple competing exchanges like equities/options. Highlighted unique value proposition of offering prediction markets alongside crypto, options, equities, and futures on single platform with rapid product evolution.

26 million plus funded accounts in the USOver 1,000 live event contracts availableProduct roadmap continuing to accelerate

Alex Margraf · KeyBank

Crypto business mix of smart exchange routing and take rate impact through Q3/Q4.

Jason noted blended take rates in high 60 cents zone, with similar levels expected in Q4. Highlighted smart exchange routing driving customer engagement and volume consolidation on Robinhood. Vlad added context that smart exchange routing enables personalized pricing, particularly benefiting high-volume prosumer traders who previously weren't competitive targets.

Blended take rates in high 60 basis point zoneTake rate expected to remain in similar zone into Q4Smart exchange routing attracting more prosumer traders

Devin Ryan · Citizens

Private markets opportunity, particularly for unaccredited investors accessing long-stay-private companies; timeline on Robinhood Ventures; M&A possibilities.

Vlad framed private markets as major opportunity to resolve equity access gap, noting companies staying private longer with multi-hundred-billion valuations. Referenced success with IPO access strategy. Shiv detailed Robinhood Ventures approach: designing for daily liquidity, non-accredited access (targeting 85% of Americans), and concentrated portfolios. Confirmed SEC filing for Robinhood Ventures 1 in quiet period; ambitions described as 'pretty large' with strong customer demand expectations.

SEC filing for Robinhood Ventures 1 in quiet period85% of Americans not accredited, representing target marketFocus on daily liquidity, non-accredited access, concentrated portfoliosFund 1 described as 'just the start'

Jeff John Roberts · Fortune

Timeline for tokenized equities scaling and revenue implications for payment for order flow.

Vlad outlined three-phase rollout still in phase one, now over 400 tokens available (largest selection). Phase two enables secondary trading on Bitstamp, phase three DeFi trading. Currently using 10 basis point FX fee model in EU, slightly higher than foregone PFOF. Expects real scaling potential in phases two and three with DeFi, self-custody, and collateralized lending.

Over 400 tokenized equities available10 basis points foreign exchange fee in EUThree-phase rollout plan (currently phase one)

Dan Doloff · Mizuho

Strategic importance of Bitstamp given 60%+ quarter-over-quarter growth and long-term role in tokenization plans.

Vlad emphasized Bitstamp's critical role in tokenization phase two execution, serving as platform for secondary trading of real assets. Noted it's Robinhood's first institutional business requiring continuous improvement. Highlighted institutional customer feedback driving product roadmap; confident volumes and market share will follow continued execution.

Bitstamp growing over 60% quarter-over-quarterKey to phase two tokenization rolloutFirst institutional business for RobinhoodInstitutional customers represent new feedback loop

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Robinhood Banking launch execution — Management confirmed Banking "started early customer rollout quite recently" and that they've gained enough confidence to "accelerate the rollout, and we're going to accelerate it even further." No specific deposit balance disclosure was provided, so the cannibalization-vs-new-money question remains open.

Continue monitoring

Gold attach rate on new cohorts holding above 35% — Disclosed: 14%+ attach on overall base, ~40% on new-customer cohorts — clearing the 35% threshold.

Resolved positively

Assets per funded customer trajectory above $10.5K — Platform assets >$333B across 27M customers implies ~$12K per customer, above the $10.5K threshold. The wallet-share narrative was de-emphasized this quarter in favor of platform diversification, but the underlying components support the bull case.

Resolved positively

Crypto revenue normalization and Bitstamp OpEx absorption — Bitstamp crossed $100M annualized and grew 60%+ QoQ, and crypto take rates held in the "high 60 basis point zone" with similar Q4 expectation. The FY OpEx+SBC envelope moved from $2.15–$2.25B to ~$2.28B, but the raise was attributed to prediction markets, Robinhood Ventures, and Vlad's market-based award — not Bitstamp integration overrun.

Resolved positively

Net deposits ≥$18B in Q3 — Record Q3 net deposits >$20B, clearing the bull-case threshold. October showed "continued momentum in net deposits, new records set across equities, options, prediction markets, and margin.".

Resolved positively

What to watch into next quarter

Prediction markets Q4 revenue print vs the $300M annualized October pace — management has now publicly anchored to $300M run-rate; a Q4 print implying anything below $250M annualized would be a credibility hit on the most-emphasized growth story

Robinhood Ventures 1 launch out of quiet period — SEC filing is in process; watch for fund size, fee structure, and whether the non-accredited access mechanism survives final SEC review. This is potentially the most differentiated retail-asset-access product in the market

FY2025 OpEx+SBC final print vs the ~$2.28B guide — management hedged with "could be higher or lower." A print above $2.30B would suggest investment intensity is still accelerating into 2026; below $2.26B would indicate discipline returning

Banking deposit disclosure — Robinhood has now committed to "accelerated" rollout for two consecutive quarters. By Q4 we should see actual deposit balances or active-user counts; continued silence would be a yellow flag

Crypto take rate sustainability into Q1 — management guided Q4 to the "high 60 basis points zone" but Q1 was not addressed. Watch whether smart exchange routing genuinely defends pricing against competitive pressure or whether take rates begin compressing

Tokenized equities phase-two activation on Bitstamp — the 10bps FX fee is the only disclosed monetization data point. Phase two (secondary trading) is where the unit economics could meaningfully exceed legacy PFOF; timing of phase-two launch is the key catalyst

CFO transition — Jason Warnick retiring in 2026 (transitions to advisory role in Q1, on through September 1); Shiv Verma stepping into CFO. Watch for continuity on the lean-and-disciplined cost framework and FY26 planning posture

Sources

Robinhood Financial LLC Q3 2025 Rule 606(a) NMS order routing public report (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1783879/000178387925000305/a165998_606xnmsx2025xq3x.htm
Robinhood Markets Q3 FY2025 earnings call — prepared remarks (Vlad Tenev, Jason Warnick, Shiv Verma) and analyst/shareholder Q&A; all quantitative figures cited in this brief sourced from these prepared remarks.

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