CPB · Q4 2025 Earnings

Bearish

Campbell's Company (The)

Reported September 3, 2025

30-second summary

Q4 organic sales fell 3% and FY25 adjusted EPS landed at $2.97 — near the midpoint of the reaffirmed $2.95–$3.05 range, with management characterizing results as "slightly ahead of our expectations." But the real news is FY26: adjusted EPS guided to $2.40–$2.55 (down 12–18% YoY off the comparable 52-week base of $2.91) and adjusted EBIT to decline 9–13%, with management attributing roughly two-thirds of the EPS hit to net tariffs on a comparable 52-week, ex-divestitures basis, and the rest to divestitures and base-business reinvestment. The cost-savings program was upsized from $250M to $375M, which is the mitigation story — not a growth story.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2025

$0.62

Revenue

Q4 FY2025

$2.32B

+1.0% YoY

Gross margin

Q4 FY2025

30.4%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2025

11.6%

Key financials

Q4 FY2025

Metric	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$2.32B	+1.0%	$2.48B	-6.2%
EPS	$0.62	—	$0.73	-15.1%
Gross margin	30.4%	—	29.4%	+100bps
Operating margin	11.6%	—	6.5%	+510bps

Guidance

FY2025 actual EPS and net sales met prior guidance at the low end; FY2026 guidance cut sharply to $2.40–$2.55 EPS (down ~19–14% YoY) driven primarily by tariffs and divestitures, with organic growth expected to stabilize at (1)% to +1%.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$2.95 to $3.05	$2.97	at low end of prior guide	Beat
Net Sales growth	FY 2025	+6% to +8%	+6%	at low end of prior guide	Beat
Organic Net Sales growth	FY 2025	(2)% to 0%	-3%	-1pt below low end of prior guide	Beat
Adjusted EBIT growth	FY 2025	+3% to +5%	Not separately disclosed in actuals	—	Missed

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS	FY 2026	$2.40 to $2.55	-19% to -14% YoY
Organic Net Sales growth	FY 2026	(1)% to +1%	—
Net Sales growth (reported)	FY 2026	(2)% to 0%	—
Adjusted EBIT growth	FY 2026	(13)% to (9)%	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Meals & Beverages	$1.202B	—
Snacks	$1.119B	+2.0%
Meals & Beverages Segment Operating Earnings	$200 million	—
Snacks Segment Operating Earnings	$159 million	—

Platform metrics

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Organic Net Sales Growth	-3%
Marketing and Selling Expenses % of Sales	9% of net sales
Rao's Brand Momentum	Approaching $1 billion brand status

Profitability

Q4 FY2025

Segment	Q4 FY2025
Adjusted EBIT	$321 million
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin	30.5%
Cost Savings Program Progress	$145 million delivered of $375 million target

Management tone

No transcript was available for either Q3 or Q4; tone analysis is again deferred. What can be read from the press-release language alone: the FY25 reaffirmation posture has given way to an FY26 framing dominated by mitigation — "increasing productivity and accelerating cost savings initiatives to help mitigate core inflation and tariff headwinds." The cost-savings target jumped from $250M to $375M between Q3 and Q4 — a 50% increase in the size of the productivity program disclosed alongside an EBIT guide that goes from +3–5% growth to a 9–13% decline. That is the shape of a company that has concluded the cost base, not the demand environment, is the lever it can actually pull.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Snacks organic trajectory — Q4 Snacks reported +2% but Snacks organic was -2% (company-wide organic -3%), meaning Snacks organic remained negative. FY25 organic landed at -1% (Snacks segment organic -3%), and FY26 organic is guided to only (1)% to +1% — management is not modeling a snap-back.

Resolved negatively

Q4 adjusted EPS vs. low end of $2.95–$3.05 FY range — FY25 closed at $2.97, near the midpoint. Q4 adjusted EPS was $0.62. The bigger issue is FY26 guidance at $2.40–$2.55, which implies the Q4 print was not the trough.

Resolved negatively

Tariff headwind containment — Tariffs are now the dominant FY26 narrative: gross tariffs ~4% of COGS, ~60% mitigated, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the FY26 EPS decline at the midpoint on a comparable 52-week, ex-divestitures basis. FY25 actual net tariff impact was ~$0.02/share, below the prior $0.03–$0.05 estimate, but the FY26 annualized impact is materially larger.

Resolved negatively

Cost savings program execution — Program upsized from $250M to $375M (+50%); $145M delivered to date. The raise is explicitly framed as a tariff mitigation lever. Status: Resolved positively (execution-wise; the need for it is not)

Meals & Beverages organic ex-Sovos — Q4 M&B was flat reported but organic -3%, with management citing declines in Rao's pasta sauces (ERP-timing reversal) and U.S. soup. The company did not break out M&B organic ex-Sovos.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

FY26 EPS guide durability — whether the $2.40–$2.55 range holds or gets cut again on the Q1 print. The 60% tariff mitigation assumption is the load-bearing variable; any slippage compounds quickly.

Cost savings cadence — $230M remaining of the $375M program. Watch the Q1 in-period delivery number; pull-forwards would be a signal management is leaning hard on cost to defend the EPS range.

Snacks organic — whether (1)% to +1% organic at the company level disguises continued negative Snacks organic, or whether the second-half-stabilization assumption proves out. A fourth consecutive quarter of negative Snacks organic forces a portfolio question.

Marketing reinvestment ROI — management flagged "incremental marketing investments" (9–10% of sales) as a topline lever. Watch whether organic sales actually inflect in 1H FY26 or whether the spend lands without volume response.

Divestiture detail — Pop Secret and noosa are called out as ~1-point reported sales drag and ~$0.04/share EPS dilution in FY26. Watch for clean disclosure of the in-quarter EBIT contribution being lapped.

Sources

Campbell's Company Q4 FY2025 press release (Exhibit 99.1, Form 8-K): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/16732/000001673225000105/exhibit991-q42025.htm
Campbell's Company Q3 FY2025 press release (prior quarter, for guidance comparison)

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