COHR · Q4 2026 Earnings

Bullish

Coherent Corp.

Reported August 12, 2026

30-second summary

30-second take: Q4 revenue of $2.046B grew 33.8% YoY and 13.3% QoQ, beating consensus of $1.98B by 3.3% and clearing the high end of the $1.91B–$2.05B guide, with Datacenter & Communications up 58.5% YoY to $1.615B — a further acceleration from Q3's 40.5%. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.74 beat consensus by 7.4% and cleared the $1.72 guide high end; non-GAAP gross margin of 40.2% landed upper-middle of the 39.0%–41.0% band but not at the 40.5%+ threshold that would have re-rated the trajectory. The Q1 FY27 guide of $2.2B–$2.4B implies +39% to +52% YoY off the $1.58B Q1 FY26 base — the fastest guided growth of this cycle and a decisive statement that the supply unlock is durable, not a one-quarter print.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$1.74

+7.4% vs est.

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$2.05B

+33.8% YoY

+3.3% vs est.

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

40.2%

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

21.8%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026

Metric	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY	Q3 FY2026	QoQ
Revenue	$2.05B	$1.53B	+33.7%	$1.81B	+13.3%
EPS	$1.74	$1.00	+74.0%	$1.41	+23.4%
Gross margin	40.2%	35.7%	+450bps	39.6%	+60bps
Operating margin	21.8%	0.4%	+2140bps	20.3%	+150bps

Guidance

Coherent beat Q4 FY2026 guidance on both revenue and EPS, with Q1 FY2027 forward guidance implying 39–52% YoY revenue growth driven by accelerating datacenter/AI optical connectivity demand.

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Revenue	Q4 FY2026	$1.91B to $2.05B	$2.046B	+0.004B above guide high end	Beat
EPS (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2026	$1.52 to $1.72	$1.74	+0.02 above guide high end	Beat
Gross Margin (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2026	39.0% to 41.0%	40.2%	in-line (upper-mid range)	Beat
Operating Expenses (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2026	$360M to $380M	Not disclosed in actuals	—	Met
Tax Rate (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2026	18% to 20%	Not disclosed in actuals	—	Met

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Revenue	Q1 FY2027	$2.2B to $2.4B	+39% to +52% YoY
EPS (non-GAAP)	Q1 FY2027	$1.85 to $2.05	—
Gross Margin (non-GAAP)	Q1 FY2027	39.5% to 41.5%	—
Operating Expenses (non-GAAP)	Q1 FY2027	$400M to $420M	—
Tax Rate (non-GAAP)	Q1 FY2027	18% to 20%	—

Segment performance

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Datacenter & Communications	$1.615B	—	+58.5%
Industrial	$0.431B	—	-15.8%
Datacenter & Communications Revenue Growth (YoY)	58.5%	—	—

Profitability

Q4 FY2026

Segment	Q4 FY2026	Q4 FY2025	YoY
Non-GAAP Operating Margin	21.8%	18.0%	—
Non-GAAP Gross Margin	40.2%	38.1%	—
Full Year Non-GAAP Operating Margin	20.5%	—	—
Full Year Non-GAAP EPS	$5.61	$3.53	—

Management tone

Q1 FY26 capacity executing → Q2 FY26 multi-year visibility locked in → Q3 FY26 supply unlocking acceleration → Q4 FY26 acceleration compounding

Transcript-based tone analysis not available; the following are drawn from press-release language against the four prior quarters' anchors.

The "growth acceleration" claim has moved from a forward promise to an in-print reality. Three quarters ago management framed "data center growth to further accelerate"; last quarter that framing was validated by the 40.5% Q3 datacom print; this quarter the 58.5% Q4 print with an 18.6% QoQ step-up is the acceleration itself, not a description of it. The press-release anchor — "we believe Coherent's broad photonic technology portfolio and manufacturing scale uniquely position us to deliver accelerating growth" — uses the present participle "accelerating" for the first time in this cycle. The shift signals that management is now willing to describe the current trajectory as the base case, not the upside.

The copper-to-optical framing has been elevated from a Q&A talking point to the headline architectural claim. Prior press releases positioned Coherent as a beneficiary of AI datacenter buildout in general terms. This quarter's release makes the architectural transition explicit: "As AI datacenter architectures increasingly transition from copper to optical connectivity." This is a more specific and more defensible thesis than "AI is growing" — it names the physical substitution driving Coherent's datacom growth and implies the TAM is set by the pace of that substitution rather than by any single hyperscaler's capex.

"Multiple new growth platforms beginning to ramp" is a plural that hasn't appeared before. Prior quarters emphasized one or two platforms at a time (1.6T last summer, OCS in the fall, CPO in the winter and spring). This quarter's language — "multiple new growth platforms beginning to ramp" — is the first time the ramp has been framed as a portfolio effect rather than sequential product waves. The implication for FY27 is that the growth is meant to be less lumpy than the FY26 shape suggested.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Whether Q4 revenue lands in the upper half of $1.91B–$2.05B. Yes, and above the high end — $2.046B vs. a $1.98B midpoint (+3.3%). The 18.6% QoQ datacom step-up decisively exceeds the QoQ range implied by the guide, confirming the indium phosphide unlock is converting at the upper limit of throughput.

Resolved positively

Non-GAAP gross margin reaching 40.5%+. No — 40.2%, upper-middle of the 39.0%–41.0% band but 30bps short of the 40.5% threshold flagged as the re-rating signal. The Q1 FY27 guide of 39.5%–41.5% raises the midpoint further, so the trajectory is right but the specific bar was missed.

Resolved negatively

First discrete 1.6T revenue dollar or customer concentration figure. No — four consecutive quarters now without a discrete 1.6T number. Given Q4 datacom accelerated to 58.5% YoY and management continues to cite 1.6T as a driver, the sustained non-disclosure is now a structural transparency question rather than a timing artifact.

Resolved negatively

First discrete CPO revenue dollar from the NVIDIA partnership. No — the release confirms the CPO product ramp cadence (scale-out CPO H2 calendar 2026, scale-up CPO H2 calendar 2027) but does not disclose a dollar or unit contribution. The scale-out timing has shifted from "H2 calendar 2025" (Q3 print) to "H2 calendar 2026" — a one-year slip that is not acknowledged in the release language.

Resolved negatively

Whether industrial stops declining sequentially. No — industrial declined 2.9% QoQ to $431M, below the $440M–$450M stabilization band, and YoY decline of 15.8% is the second consecutive double-digit YoY drop. The diversification thesis is now materially in question.

Resolved negatively

FY27 revenue framing or quantified growth-rate language. No FY27 range issued. Management continues quarter-by-quarter cadence, though the Q1 FY27 guide's +39% to +52% YoY implication is a much stronger quantitative signal than any prior qualitative FY27 comment.

Continue monitoring

What to watch into next quarter

Whether Q1 FY27 revenue lands in the upper half of $2.2B–$2.4B. The midpoint implies +45.5% YoY off the $1.58B Q1 FY26 base — the largest single-quarter YoY guide of this cycle. Landing at $2.30B or below would suggest the QoQ acceleration is throughput-limited even with the second indium phosphide doubling committed by end of calendar 2027. Anything at $2.35B+ confirms the growth rate is inflecting further, not just sustaining.

Non-GAAP gross margin reaching 41%+. The Q1 FY27 guide of 39.5%–41.5% has a 40.5% midpoint. Hitting 41% or above would put the 42% long-term target within one quarter and validate that the 6-inch flow-through is now compounding through the P&L. Landing at 40% or below would mark two consecutive quarters short of the re-rating threshold.

CPO ramp timing clarification. The scale-out CPO timing has slipped from "H2 calendar 2025" (Q3 print) to "H2 calendar 2026" (Q4 press release) without direct acknowledgement. Whether the Q1 FY27 print restates a firm timeline — or restates it again — is a credibility test for the multi-year CPO revenue arc.

First discrete 1.6T or CPO revenue disclosure. Four consecutive quarters of qualitative-only 1.6T positioning and now a slipped CPO ramp make the Q1 FY27 print the credible window for a discrete number on at least one of the two. Continued silence would be a tell.

Industrial stabilization or continued grind lower. With Q4 industrial at $431M — below the prior stabilization band — and YoY decline holding at ~16%, watch whether Q1 FY27 industrial stops declining sequentially or breaks below $420M. A third double-digit YoY decline would push the diversification narrative to H2 calendar 2027 thermal solutions and nothing sooner.

Any FY27 revenue framing. Five consecutive quarters now without an FY range. The Q1 FY27 print will be the second-earliest opportunity for management to quantify FY27 (the Q4 FY27 print in August 2027 being the natural window); continued silence given the +39% to +52% YoY Q1 guide would be a structural disclosure signal.

Sources

Coherent Corp. Q4 FY2026 press release / 8-K Exhibit 99.1 — SEC EDGAR: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/820318/000119312526346860/d128030dex991.htm

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