CCL · Q3 2025 Earnings

Bullish

Carnival Corporation

Reported September 29, 2025

30-second summary

Carnival beat its own Q3 guide on every line that matters — EPS $1.43 vs $1.30 guided (+10%), net yields +4.6% vs +3.5% guided, and unit costs ex-fuel came in well under the +7.0% YoY warning the company flagged in June. Management raised FY2025 adjusted net income for the third quarter in a row, now ~$2.925B (up $235M from June), with FY EBITDA bumped to ~$7.05B and FY EPS to $2.14. The 2026 booked position remains in line with 2025's record at historical-high prices, which is the forward signal that matters more than the Q3 print.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q3 FY2025

$1.43

Revenue

Q3 FY2025

$8.15B

+3.3% YoY

Free cash flow

Q3 FY2025

$0.73B

Operating margin

Q3 FY2025

27.8%

Key financials

Q3 FY2025

Metric	Q3 FY2025	YoY	Q2 FY2025	QoQ
Revenue	$8.15B	+3.3%	$6.33B	+28.8%
EPS	$1.43	—	$0.35	+308.6%
Operating margin	27.8%	—	14.8%	+1304bps
Free cash flow	$0.73B	—	$1.54B	-52.3%

Guidance

Guidance is issued for both next quarter and the full year. Both may appear below.

Actuals vs prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	Actual	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q3 FY2025	$1.30	$1.43	+$0.13 above guide	Beat
Adjusted EBITDA	Q3 FY2025	$2.87 billion	$2.993 billion	+$0.123 billion above guide	Beat
Net Yields YoY Growth (constant currency)	Q3 FY2025	approximately 3.5% YoY	4.6% YoY	+1.1 percentage points above guide	Beat
Adjusted Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel per ALBD YoY Growth (constant currency)	Q3 FY2025	approximately 7.0% YoY	implied ~3.9% YoY (per $109.65 ALBD vs Q3 2024 baseline)	-3.1 percentage points better than guide	Beat
Adjusted Net Income	Q3 FY2025	approximately $1,800 million	$1.852 billion	+$52 million above guide	Beat

New guidance

Metric	Period	Guide	YoY
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	Q4 FY2025	$0.23	—
Net Yields YoY Growth (constant currency)	Q4 FY2025	approximately 4.3% YoY	approximately 4.3% YoY

Changes to prior guidance

Metric	Period	Prior guide	New guide	Δ	Result
Adjusted EPS (non-GAAP)	FY2025	$1.97	$2.14	+$0.17 per share	Raised
Adjusted EBITDA	FY2025	approximately $6.9 billion	approximately $7.05 billion	+$0.15 billion	Raised
Adjusted Net Income	FY2025	approximately $2,690 million	approximately $2,925 million	+$235 million	Raised
Net Yields YoY Growth (constant currency)	FY2025	approximately 5.0% YoY	approximately 5.3% YoY	+0.3 percentage points	Raised
Adjusted Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel per ALBD YoY Growth (constant currency)	FY2025	approximately 3.6% YoY	approximately 3.3% YoY	-0.3 percentage points	Lowered

Segment performance

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025	YoY
Passenger ticket revenue	$5.43B	+3.6%
Onboard and other revenue	$2.723B	+2.5%

Platform metrics

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Net Yields (constant currency)	$249.11 per ALBD
Net Yields YoY Growth (constant currency)	4.6%
Adjusted Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel per ALBD (constant currency)	$109.65 per ALBD
Occupancy	112%
Customer Deposits	$7.1 billion

Profitability

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Adjusted EBITDA	$2.993 billion
Adjusted Return on Invested Capital (trailing 12 months)	13.0%

Other KPIs

Q3 FY2025

Segment	Q3 FY2025
Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA	3.6x

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q3 cost guide delivery (+7.0% YoY ex-fuel/ALBD) — Adjusted cruise costs ex-fuel per ALBD came in at $109.65, implying ~+3.9% YoY growth — materially better than the +7.0% guide. The FY cost guide was then cut from +3.6% to +3.3%, the opposite of a hot-cost revision.

Resolved positively

2026 booked position commentary — Management reiterated that cumulative advanced booked position for 2026 remains in line with 2025's record levels and at historical high prices. No hard advance-booking dollar figure was disclosed on the print.

Continue monitoring

Net yield trajectory into 2H — Q3 came in at +4.6% vs +3.5% guided, and the FY net yield guide was raised from +5.0% to +5.3%. Q4 is now guided +4.3% — implied 2H is tracking above the +4% the prior brief flagged.

Resolved positively

Customer deposit balance — Deposits were $7.1B at Q3-end, down from $8.5B at Q2-end. This is consistent with seasonal recognition of summer voyages rather than a demand signal, but the FY high-water mark for deposits looks to have been set in Q2. Status: Resolved negatively on the absolute-build question; demand commentary still bullish.

Capital return signal — No buyback or dividend reinstatement was announced. Net debt/EBITDA improved to 3.6x and ROIC hit 13.0%, but the print stayed silent on a capital-return framework.

Not resolved

What to watch into next quarter

Q4 cost guide delivery: management is now guiding +3.2% YoY ex-fuel/ALBD — much milder than the +7.0% Q3 guide that proved conservative. Watch whether Q4 costs actually print at or below +3.2%, or whether the conservatism reversed.

2026 wave season pricing: Q4 covers the start of wave season. Watch for a hard data point on 2026 net yield growth or a specific advance-booking dollar figure on the Q4 call.

Capital return announcement: ROIC at 13.0%, net debt/EBITDA at 3.6x and falling, FCF positive — watch whether the Q4 call introduces a buyback or dividend reinstatement framework, or whether the cash continues flowing entirely to debt paydown.

Net yield deceleration into Q4 and 2026: Q2 +6.4% → Q3 +4.6% → Q4 guided +4.3%. Watch whether the deceleration stabilizes around +4% or continues to slow as 2024 comps get tougher.

FY EPS quality: with FY2025 EPS now $2.14 (vs $1.97 in June), the implied Q4 of $0.23 is the seasonal low. Watch whether any one-off below-the-line items (interest, tax, FX) flatter the bridge.

Sources

Carnival Corporation Q3 FY2025 earnings press release (8-K), filed 2025-09-29. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/815097/000081509725000082/a20253qearningsrelease8-k.htm
Carnival Corporation Q2 FY2025 earnings press release (8-K), filed 2025-06-24 — prior-period guidance baseline.

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