tapebrief
AMCR · Q3 2026

AMCR · Q4 2026 Earnings

Cautious

Amcor

Reported August 12, 2026

30-second summary

Amcor closed FY26 with Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.23 and FY26 adjusted EPS of $4.02 hitting the midpoint of the $3.98–$4.03 guide. Reported full-year free cash flow came in at $1.303B, but Adjusted Free Cash Flow (before ~$290M of Berry transaction and integration costs) was $1,593M — inside the $1.5–$1.6B guide range. The read on the cash flow line hinges on whether the prior guide contemplated those integration costs; on a reported basis it's ~$200M short of the low end, on an adjusted basis it's in range. Instead of issuing a standard FY27 guide, management introduced a six-month "transition period" ending December 31, 2026 with adjusted EPS of $1.80–$1.90 and leverage of 3.5–3.6x, signaling a calendar-year realignment that obscures annualized run-rate visibility. The forward-outlook construct itself — a truncated period with an explicit caveat for unannounced portfolio actions — is the tonal story of the print.

Headline numbers

EPS

Q4 FY2026

$1.23

+3.4% vs est.

Revenue

Q4 FY2026

$6.40B

+26.0% YoY

+5.2% vs est.

Gross margin

Q4 FY2026

20.9%

Free cash flow

Q4 FY2026

$1.40B

Operating margin

Q4 FY2026

10.1%

Key financials

Q4 FY2026
MetricQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoYQ3 FY2026QoQ
Revenue$6.40B$5.08B+25.9%$5.91B+8.2%
EPS$1.23$0.20+515.0%$0.96+28.1%
Gross margin20.9%17.6%+330bps20.1%+80bps
Operating margin10.1%1.7%+840bps7.8%+230bps
Free cash flow$1.40B$0.94B+48.0%$-0.04B+3679.5%

Guidance

FY2026 Adjusted EPS met guidance at midpoint ($4.02), but Free Cash Flow significantly missed at $1.303B (vs. $1.5–$1.6B guide); FY2027 transition-period EPS guidance introduced at $1.80–$1.90.

Guidance is issued for the full year only, refreshed each quarter. Prior and new below are the same FY updated this quarter.

Actuals vs prior guidance

MetricPeriodPrior guideActualΔResult
Adjusted EPSFY2026$3.98 to $4.03$4.02in-line (midpoint of guide)Beat
Free Cash FlowFY2026$1.5 to $1.6 billion$1.303 billion-$0.197–$0.297 billion below guideMissed

New guidance

MetricPeriodGuideYoY
Adjusted EPSFY2027$1.80 to $1.90—
Net Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA LeverageFY20273.5x to 3.6x—

Segment KPIs

Q4 FY2026
SegmentQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoY
Global Flexible Packaging Solutions$3.525B$3.205B+10.0%
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions$2.873B$1.877B+53.1%

Other KPIs

Q4 FY2026
SegmentQ4 FY2026Q4 FY2025YoY
Adjusted EBITDA$1,045 million$789 million—
Adjusted EBIT Margin - Global Flexible Packaging Solutions15.1%——
Adjusted EBIT Margin - Global Rigid Packaging Solutions12.3%——
Berry Acquisition Synergy Realization (Q4)$100 million——
Free Cash Flow$1,396 million——
Global Flexible Packaging Solutions Volume Growth1.0%——
Global Rigid Packaging Solutions Volume Growth0.5%——
Raw Material Pass-Through Impact+6% growth contribution——

Management tone

Transcript unavailable for this quarter; tone read below is derived from press-release language and forward-outlook framing changes vs. the prior four quarters.

The forward-outlook construct itself is the biggest tonal signal: management replaced a standard FY27 guide with a six-month "transition period" ending December 2026, without a matched annualized comparator. Every prior print in this coverage cycle issued a standard fiscal-year frame. This quarter breaks that cadence. The stated rationale is a calendar-year realignment, but the effect is that investors cannot compare FY27 run-rate expectations to the FY26 $4.02 print without doing the annualization themselves — and the $1.80–$1.90 six-month range annualizes to roughly $3.60–$3.80, which is below FY26. Management did not frame it that way; the press release emphasized "momentum" and "greater potential for growth." The construct obscures what would otherwise read as a down guide.

The FY27 outlook language elevates Berry integration from a contributor to the operating model itself. This quarter's framing: "we complete the integration and begin to realize our potential as a global leader in consumer packaging." The word "complete" is new — it implies integration work is winding down as a discrete program, which sets a higher bar for organic execution to carry the narrative from here.

The explicit caveat that the outlook excludes "potential portfolio optimization actions not announced to date" introduces material unquantified optionality. Combined with the continued silence on North American beverage timing, it suggests something is closer than "encouraging conversations" but not close enough to book — and the transition-period construct provides a convenient window in which such a transaction could land without disturbing a full-year guide.

Answers to last quarter's watch list

Q4 FCF print — Q4 FCF came in at $1.396B. FY26 reported FCF finished at $1.303B against the $1.5–$1.6B guide (~13% below the low end / ~16% below midpoint). However, Adjusted FCF of $1.593B — before ~$290M of Berry transaction and integration costs — landed inside the guide range. The read depends on whether the prior guide contemplated those integration costs. Status: Resolved mixed
Q4 synergy capture — Q4 synergies landed at approximately $100M. FY26 synergies realized of ~$240M vs. prior $270M reference; management characterized realization as ahead of plan, suggesting the $270M was a run-rate or different measure. Reconciliation not disclosed. Status: Resolved ambiguously
Whether the transition period setup acknowledges inventory unwind — The transition-period EPS guide of $1.80–$1.90 and leverage guide of 3.5–3.6x were disclosed, but the press release did not explicitly commit to a working-capital release contributing to transition-period FCF. Status: Not addressed
Resin cost pass-through cadence — Raw material pass-through contributed +6% to Q4 reported revenue growth, confirming resin inflation remained a significant top-line factor. EPS still hit the guide midpoint, indicating volume, synergy, and non-core recovery offset pass-through drag. Status: Resolved neutrally
North American beverage process milestone — Another quarter without an announced buyer, LOI, or write-down. The new press-release caveat that the outlook "does not take into account the impact of potential portfolio optimization actions not announced to date" is the first time management has explicitly telegraphed unannounced portfolio moves in a forward frame — a soft signal that something is closer than prior "encouraging conversations" language, but still no hard milestone.
Continue monitoring
Reinstatement of net interest and tax rate guides at Q4 — Neither net interest expense nor effective tax rate guides were reinstated. The company pivoted instead to a truncated transition-period frame with only EPS and leverage disclosed.
Resolved negatively

What to watch into next quarter

Transition-period FCF trajectory and any explicit inventory release commentary: Whether Adjusted FCF of $1.593B for FY26 (in-range) or reported $1.303B (below range) becomes the anchor for how the market judges the cash story. Watch for either an explicit FCF guide for the six-month period or reconciliation of working capital and integration cost flows.

Whether management annualizes the transition-period guide: The $1.80–$1.90 six-month EPS range implies roughly $3.60–$3.80 annualized, below the FY26 $4.02 print. If Q1 disclosure does not include an explicit bridge to a comparable full-year run-rate, the reporting change should be treated as obscuring a step-down.

Portfolio optimization action announced during the transition period: The explicit outlook caveat telegraphs that unannounced portfolio moves are possible. Watch for the North American beverage process, other non-core sales, or a broader restructuring within the six-month window.

Segment margin trajectory into calendar 2026: Q4 consolidated adjusted EBIT margin of 13.1% was up from 12.0% a year ago; Flexible at 15.1% and Rigid at 12.3% both expanded YoY. Watch whether the segment-level margin expansion holds as integration accounting effects roll off.

Leverage progression against the 3.5–3.6x transition-period target: Still above the 2.5–3x long-term target management framed at deal close. A December 2026 print that stalls at 3.6x rather than progressing toward 3.5x signals FCF is not deleveraging the balance sheet at the pace the guide implies.

Sources

  1. Amcor Q4 FY2026 press release (SEC filing): https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1748790/000174879026000020/amcor4q2026ex991-june302026.htm
  2. Amcor Q3 FY2026 brief (tapebrief prior coverage, for guide and watch-list context).
  3. Amcor Q2 FY2026 brief (tapebrief prior coverage, for trend context).
  4. Amcor Q1 FY2026 brief (tapebrief prior coverage, for trend context).
  5. Amcor Q4 FY2025 brief (tapebrief prior coverage, for trend context).

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